Knicks Tankathon 1.0: Five clicks and five picks in the NBA Draft (2024)

With less than a week remaining in the season, the Knicks’ lottery positioning is uncertain.

They have the 12th-worst record in the NBA, which lends them the 12th-best odds at the No. 1 pick, but they also are in the middle of a logjam. New York sits at 35-44 heading into Wednesday’s game against the Nets, a half-game better than the Pelicans (34-44) and Wizards (34-44) and 1.5 games better than the Spurs (33-45).

Find a way to drop below those three teams, claiming the NBA’s ninth-worst record instead of 12th, and the chances of sneaking into the top four of the NBA Draft almost triple because of how the lottery odds work.

If the Knicks stay in 12th for the remainder of the season, they would have a 1.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 7.1 percent chance of a top-four selection. The ninth-worst team has 4.5 percent odds at No. 1 and 20.3 percent odds at the top four.

The Knicks, who are still trying to win games instead of tossing them in the dumpster, have the Nets (mired in 10th place and in desperate need of victories), the Wizards (in a massive 11th-best-lottery-odds duel) and the Raptors (who could be fighting for seeding on the final day of the season) remaining on the schedule.

So, since it’s that time of year, let’s head to Tankathon.com, a website that simulates mock lottery results, to surmise various ways the draft order could play out. I simulated five lotteries to configure where the Knicks might pick. If they finish 12th in the reverse standings, they would have a shot at seven possible picks. Here are what their odds at each one would look like:

1.5 percent chance at No. 1
1.7 percent chance at No. 2
1.9 percent chance at No. 3
1.1 percent chance at No. 4
86.1 percent chance at No. 12
6.7 percent chance at No. 13
0.1 percent chance at No. 14

Now, let’s dive into the results:

Simulation No. 1: Knicks get the fourth pick

1. Portland: Jabari Smith, PF, Auburn

2. Indiana: Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

3. New Orleans (via L.A. Lakers): Paolo Banchero, PF, Duke

And with the fourth pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks select … Jaden Ivey, guard, Purdue.

Reasoning: Hey, look! It’s a dynamic guard, who could add speed and explosiveness to an offense that desperately needs it. The question with Ivey is the same as the one with multiple guys already on the Knicks’ roster: Is he a point guard in the long term or is he more of a combo?

Either way, the Knicks have one of the league’s least-athletic rosters. They rarely have more than one or two players who could be considered above-average athleticism for their position on the floor at once. Ivey can slam on guys. He can push in transition and get to the hoop.

The 3-point shot can be inconsistent, which would mean the team’s top-two building blocks, Ivey and RJ Barrett, both have to iron out their jumpers. But this draft has a consensus top-four, though the order inside that quartet varies, and Ivey is firmly part of it. If the Knicks end up with the No. 4 pick, he might be the guy.

Simulation No. 2: Knicks get the 12th pick

1. Oklahoma City: Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

2. San Antonio: Jabari Smith, PF, Auburn

3. Portland: Paolo Banchero, PF, Duke

4. Houston: Jaden Ivey, SG, Purdue

5. Orlando: Keegan Murray, PF, Iowa

6. Detroit: Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Arizona

7. Indiana: AJ Griffin, SF, Duke

8. Sacramento: Shaedon Sharpe, SG, Kentucky

9. New Orleans (via L.A. Lakers): Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

10. Washington: Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin

11. Portland (via L.A. Lakers): Tari Eason, PF, LSU

And with the 12th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks select … TyTy Washington, point guard, Kentucky.

Reasoning: Give the Knicks their point guard of the future — though, with the 12th pick, nothing is guaranteed.

Washington had up-and-down results during his first season at Kentucky, beginning the season on fire and finishing it icy, especially as a shooter. He didn’t put up gaudy scoring numbers (12.5 points per game on 45-35-75 shooting), but Kentucky’s top guards of recent years often wait until the NBA to blow up. As NBA Draft guru Sam Vecenie of The Athletic mentioned recently, look at what happened with Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey and Keldon Johnson once they hit the pros.

There would be other players the Knicks could select with this pick, and they should not be drafting for need in the middle of the draft, especially considering Washington may not be ready to contribute right away. But this organization has been on the prowl for a point guard for more than two decades. Maybe Washington could finally give them one.

Simulation No. 3: Knicks get the third pick

1. New Orleans (via L.A. Lakers): Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

2. Indiana: Jabari Smith, PF, Auburn

And with the third pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks select … Paolo Banchero, power forward, Duke.

Reasoning: Let the positional speculation begin …

The Knicks already have someone who is strictly a power forward, someone they just extended last summer for four years and at least $106 million. If they were to get lucky in the lottery and somehow snag Banchero, another guy who seems to fit directly into that power forward mold, what might that mean for Julius Randle?

There is a follow-up to that question, too, and it’s open for debate: Should the Knicks even care about Randle redundancies if they end up with the No. 3 pick?

Banchero had moments of brilliance at Duke. He can score, pass and has soft hands that shape his game. In a decade, we could look back on him as the best player in this draft. Randle, meanwhile, fell back to mortality this year after an All-NBA 2020-21. If you can select someone with Banchero’s potential, you have to consider doing it, even if it means overlapping with the player you just extended for nearly half a decade.

Simulation No. 4: Knicks get the 13th pick

1. Houston (via Brooklyn): Jabari Smith, PF, Auburn

2. Oklahoma City: Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga

3. Sacramento: Paolo Bachero, PF, Duke

4. Indiana: Keegan Murray, PF, Iowa

5. Orlando: Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

6. Houston: Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Arizona

7. Detroit: AJ Griffin, SF, Duke

8. Portland: Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

9. New Orleans (via L.A. Lakers): Jeremy Sochan, SF/PF, Baylor

10. San Antonio: Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin

11. Washington: Dyson Daniels, SG, G League Ignite

12. Portland (via New Orleans): Mark Williams, C, Duke

And with the 13th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks select … Ochai Agbaji, shooting guard, Kansas.

Reasoning: Let’s keep things topical. The Knicks select the senior who was just named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four on Monday.

Yes, Agbaji is a little older than your average prospect. He’ll be 22 at the start of next season, but the Knicks haven’t necessarily shied away from non-freshmen if they like someone. After all, Obi Toppin also was 22 when they drafted him with the No. 8 pick in 2020.

The logic with Agbaji would be simple: You can never have too many wings. He’s a smart player and can shoot the deep ball. The Knicks already have 2021 first-round pick Quentin Grimes, a defensive-minded long-range shooter, who fits well next to Barrett. Adding another couldn’t hurt.

Simulation No. 5: Knicks get the first pick

With the first pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks select … Chet Holmgren, center, Gonzaga.

Reasoning: The Knicks could take Jabari Smith here. It’s plausible Smith ends up the top player from this draft, and he is in the conversation to go No. 1. But Holmgren is more fun, so let’s pick the guy who inspires comparisons to former Knicks player Kristaps Porzingis, if only because of his stretched-out stature.

The immediate question about the 7-foot-1 19-year-old would be about what role he could fill as a rookie. Long term, he’s a center. At Gonzaga, he was the nation’s premier shot blocker, swatting 4.9 attempts per 36 minutes, but how long might it take for his rim protection to carry over to the pros? Holmgren is towering, but he also may weigh less than Immanuel Quickley. When skilled guards, broad-shouldered wings or, worse, just your average big man hit him on the way to the hoop, will he go flying backward, unable to hold his ground?

Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau needs his centers to protect the rim. It’s his basketball ethos. It means Thibodeau could think of Holmgren in one of two ways: as a long, imposing center capable of slapping away shots or as a raw tall guy who can’t deter pros in the paint yet.

If Holmgren hits his potential, it’s as a 3-point slaying, shot-blocking center who can create for himself off the dribble. It’s why he’s likely to be a top-two pick in this year’s draft. Players who are this tall and this long don’t shoot or create like him, and he has a chance to pair it with impact defense. He’s the type, as well, who ideally would fit in well next to Barrett and Randle, who both prefer to operate inside the 3-point arc.

(Photo of Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Associated Press)